“The earliest reference we found that specifically focused on describing and recommending iterative development was a 1968 report from Brian Randell and F.W. Zurcher at the IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. M.M. Lehman later described Randell and Zurcher’s work and again promoted iterative development in his September 1969 internal report to IBM management on development recommendations…”
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1204375
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“In his well-known 1970 article, “Managing the Development of Large Software Systems,” Winston Royce shared his opinions on what would become known as the waterfall model..Many—incorrectly—view Royce’s paper as the paragon of single-pass waterfall. In reality, he recommended an approach somewhat different than what has devolved into today’s waterfall concept, with its strict sequence of requirements analysis, design, and development phases. Indeed, Royce’s recommendation was to do it twice”