Coming up on the 2025 horizon for these 2014 predictions about AI, robotics and the Future of Jobs.
Interesting to read how many people thought autonomous vehicles were both (1) technologically imminent and (2) would be rapidly integrated into society.
https://policycommons.net/artifacts/619693/ai-robotics-and-the-future-of-jobs/1600846/
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Several participants comment on the potential "leisure surplus" from widespread AI/robotics adoption. Story in three quotes:
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A government executive wrote that the future will have positive and negative outcomes that will bring adjustments, saying, “Yes, the net effect will be negative—more jobs lost than created—[but] the social consequences would be actually positive overall. We will renegotiate the social order's expectation of the optimal mix between leisure and work. We will have less work and more leisure. We can afford this re-alignment because of the gained productivity.”
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Daren C. Brabham, assistant professor at the Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism, University of Southern California, wrote, “It is a long-standing sci-fi fantasy that someday our advances in automation/AI/robots will make human labor obsolete and allow us to live happier, healthier lives of leisure. That has never proven to be true—we work harder and longer in the U.S. now than we ever have, despite technological advances.”
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Dan Gordon of Valhalla Partners wrote, “We will not have evolved a new understanding of work, jobs, and the relation of humans to the fruits of society. This is fundamentally an ideological and social question, not a technical or economic one...”